Good morning, all. I hope your week is off to a terrific start.
Aaron Judge and Max Fried might be the two best players in baseball, but they will not be enough to rescue the New York Yankees. With 20 percent of the season finished, the Yankees and their $293+M payroll own a pedestrian 19-16 record. That might be good enough for first place in the lousy AL East, but as presently constituted, the Yankees will not repeat as AL champions in 2025. Their roster is too flawed.
The Yankees may even be hard-pressed to win 90 games. They have to win 71 of 127 games to reach that mark. Playing 15 games over .500 from here on out is something they show no signs of doing. And should they capture a divisional title, that will not be enough to get them to the finish line. Not only are they not the best team in the AL, they may not even be the second or third best team in the AL.
Fried has been an excellent free agent acquisition and could be the best pitcher in baseball, although Tarik Skubal would have something to say about that. Judge is off to a monster start, but he is also 33-years-old. Always injury prone, he managed to play an entire season without serious injury in 2024. Who’s to say he will not suffer another injury this year? Freak injuries and Judge are hand-in-hand compadres. If he goes down again, forget it. They might not even win their mediocre division.
After Fried, their starting rotation is suspect at best. Carlos Rodon has pitched well in his last four starts, but he is always an inning away from disaster. Clarke Schmidt? Mark him down as a .500 pitcher, if that. Marcus Stroman? If he ever returns from his left knee inflammation, there is no guarantee he will make a contribution. Stroman looks lights out the first time through the batting order, but once the lineup flips, it becomes a challenge. The national debt may be retired, before Stroman ever retires the side in five straight innings. And if you are counting on Carlos Carrasco to help your rotation, then you have problems. Same for Luis Gil, if and when he returns from his injury.
You won’t confuse the Yankees everyday lineup with Murderers Row either. After Judge, name one player in that order that would strike fear in an opposing pitcher?
Paul Goldschmidt is off to a strong start, but at 36, his output will diminish. Anthony Volpe is a bust as a hitter, prone to extended slumps interspersed with an occasional hot streak. Defensively he’s slightly above average, but if he was the second coming of Derek Jeter, why did the Yankees draft shortstops in the first round of the 2021 and 2023 drafts? Second base is a mess and they do not have an everyday third baseman.
Austin Wells may be a burrito connoisseur but as a catcher, he is no Jorge Posada. He’s not even Jake Gibbs. Their outfield, after Judge, is a crapshoot. There is a reason the Dodgers and Cubs gave up on former MVP Cody Bellinger: he is a .200 hitter. Jason Dominguez is quickly becoming the next Estevan Florial and although Trent Grisham has been a pleasant surprise with the bat, how long can that continue? And expecting something out of DJ LeMahieu, should he return, is risky. He is a walking injury.
As for the bullpen, although reliable at times - Devin Williams aside - it is already showing the strain of a decaying starting rotation. (Williams and the normally reliable Luke Weaver coughed up a three-run lead in the eighth inning in Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Padres.)
I know about the injuries, but all teams have injuries. It is what led to the phrase, “a team is only as good as its last player on the bench.” And the Yankees bench is not the bench that made up those championship clubs of the glory years.
When the Yankees start showing signs of a free fall - and it may already have begun, after recently losing two of three to both the last place Orioles and fourth place Rays and blowing the game against the Padres- it would not surprise me to see them include Dominguez, Oswaldo Peraza or Oswaldo Cabrera in a trade. Maybe all three might be peddled.
The Yankees will have an occasional hot streak. After winning five straight pennants and picked to win a sixth, even the 1965 Johnny Keane-managed Yankees had a few winning streaks, but in the end finished below .500.
These Yankees should finish with a winning record, saved by a weak division. But that’s all. Worse, their future is also suspect. Their top two farm clubs are devoid of prospects outside of George Lombard Jr. and maybe Spencer Jones. In other words, they may have a payroll to compete with the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but that’s where the comparison ends. The Dodgers are poised for numerous championship runs. The once mighty Yankees? They have not won a World Series since 2009, and it may be a long time before they win another one.
Ballpark organist still going strong at 89
When I was broadcasting Richmond Braves games in the 1980s, I always looked forward to the Braves going to Rochester to play the Red Wings. One of the big reasons was listening to their organist Fred Costello. I’ve always loved organ music at ballparks and Costello was among the best.
Lo and behold, he is going strong at 89, still playing at Red Wings games. Recently, the CBS Evening News did a piece on Fred. Enjoy!
Here are some other DAN ON SPORTS top stories for Tuesday, May 6, 2025:
Knicks stun Celtics in NBA round two opener
Nuggets do the same to OKC
Strahan, Lasry want part of NY Giants
NFL ‘27 draft in D.C. expected to draw one million
LA Kings and GM splitsville
Isles win NHL draft lottery
No guarantee Sovereignty will enter Preakness
Bret Boone named Rangers hitting coach
That is going to do it for today’s newsletter. Look for more content throughout the week and thank you for your support.
DAN